Articles

Filter by Category:

All Risk Sentiment Debt Retirement Mindset Geopolitics Bonds Investing Life

The Long-Awaited Correction

The Long-Awaited Correction

Last week may have been a surprise to most, but it was not a surprise to those who read my newsletters.

Read more

The Gamblers

The Gamblers

I do not have a gambling addiction. That has never been my thing.

Read more

Build a Portfolio That Helps You Stay Invested

Build a Portfolio That Helps You Stay Invested

The pressure to create a strong portfolio that will support you as you approach retirement can be overwhelming.

Read more

Chunky Revenue Streams

Chunky Revenue Streams

My job is to write newsletters. I get paid pretty much every day of the year, as new subscriptions and renewals come in. It is a fairly steady revenue stream.

Read more

Financial Nihilism

Financial Nihilism

Someone wrote a 2-star review of my book on Goodreads, a long-winded review, which ended with the idea that there’s no point in saving for the future because we’re going to have war, revolution, and it’s all going to come to a violent end. I wish I were making this up, but I’m not. Thanks for the extra star, I guess?

I’m not going to take the time to refute that point by point, but let’s just say that saving for the future does matter because the track record of pessimists has been exceptionally poor. 

I’ve also heard that Zoomers aren’t saving for retirement either (because “there is no point”)—we’re all going to cook under global warming, and the planet won’t be around in 40 years. I’ve heard that, too. And again, I am not going to refute the global warming thing point by point, but I will say that is probably overly pessimistic and that you should be maxing out your 401(k).

Then you have the YOLO people who live for today and don’t worry about tomorrow. Tomorrow will come; it always will.

I call this financial nihilism; and yes, attaining wealth is harder these days, but in some ways, it is easier. I would not worry too much about it. I did this exercise when I was 22 years old: I built a spreadsheet with 40 years of IRA contributions and showed how they compounded over time. Upon retirement, assuming a rate of return of about 8%, I would have $2 million or thereabouts. 

Well, after a few years, I could no longer contribute to that Roth IRA, having exceeded the income limits, but I still have that account, and it has $86,000 in it, on about $20,000 in contributions. It is invested in the total market index fund. And by the time I retire, it will have more. Maybe I will have $150,000–$200,000 when I retire, which isn’t life-changing, but that will keep me going for a few years. I am earning a higher rate of return on my other stuff.

You have to think about the future, or the future will think about you.

The Downside of the Awesome Portfolio

The Awesome Portfolio is great, and I recommend it to everyone, but there is a downside: It returns less. About a percent less, maybe a little more.

That may not seem like much, but there is a big difference between an 8% return and a 9% return over an investing lifetime. It adds up to hundreds of thousands of dollars when you compound it.

Now, my point all along is that the 9% return is illusory, and nobody realizes it, because they get whipsawed by the market and panic and sell. But yes, it is true that if you invested in the stock market only and held on through all the ups and downs, you would have hundreds of thousands of dollars more than if you had the Awesome Portfolio.

But people can’t do it. And even if they could do it, they’d be miserable. So, maybe you are trading away a few hundred thousand dollars for happiness. That is the way I look at it.

Costco Consumption

I went to Costco for the first time two weeks ago. It was an experience. That place just prints money. I went on a Saturday afternoon when it was most crowded. There were a lot of people in there who were not thinking about tomorrow! I have never seen so much consumption in my life.

We bought a few things, including a new set of pans for the new house and some pool noodles for the pool. People were buying TVs the size of a parking space. It was incredible. And yes, you are getting a good deal, but you are still spending money. We got a regular membership for $60. They gave us the hardest of hard sells for an executive membership for $120.

You know what I always say—you should be saving 20% of your income each year. In good times and bad. I save much more than that, and for the past few years, it has been allocated to the new house. Some people say that you are spending money on a house. No—it’s an investment, you are simply allocating it to the real estate bucket.

Let me be the first one to tell you that the world is not going to end, and every dollar you spend today is one you won’t have in retirement after compounding. You may not spend it all in retirement, but you can give it away, which is another good thing to do with it. 

Let me put it this way: I’d rather have too much money in retirement than too little.

Jared Dillian
Jared Dillian, MFA
 

Let Jared Help! Depending on your comfort level, we suggest picking one of these four options to get started:

  1. SHORT PRIVATE EQUITY: Jared Dillian’s new site aggregates critical stories on private equity’s downfall. With so much content, we had to create its own site—updated almost daily. Jared’s conviction in shorting private equity is stronger than ever. It’s completely free. Just bookmark and share it: ShortPrivateEquity.com.

  1. How Do I Start Investing? FREE Course: The thought of learning how to invest can seem intimidating. But it doesn’t have to be.

    With the right approach, you can kickstart your investing journey with the certainty you’re getting exactly what you need. How Do I Start Investing? is the perfect guide for when you’re ready to dive in.

  1. Jared Dillian’s Strategic Portfolio: Get access to Jared’s stress-free portfolio with this monthly newsletter.

    Timely, actionable investment ideas on exchange-traded funds that can help you mitigate volatility and build a resilient and profitable core portfolio, protecting you in bad times while prospering in good times. Yearly subscriptions available.

  1. The Daily Dirtnap: Jared’s macro newsletter for investing professionals. This daily letter takes a top-down approach, looking at the various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. Join over 4,000 readers who read his market insights every weekday.

  1. Street Freak: As the most active of Jared’s portfolio products, Street Freak is an aggressive stock-picking newsletter. It’s written for astute investors who crave creative, fresh macro analysis and forward-looking trade ideas so they can invest more opportunistically, without much hand-holding along the way.

    Adjusted for risk, of course. But this is not for the faint of heart. Jared and his readers are trying to make a lot of money here.

 
Dave Ramsey and the One-Size-Fits-All Solution

Dave Ramsey and the One-Size-Fits-All Solution

Usually, when I rank on Dave Ramsey, I get back the following: “Well, he has helped a lot of people, hasn’t he?”

Read more

 < 1 2 3 4 >  Last ›